Why Rishi Sunak-led Conservative Party is likely to lose?

Keir Starmer’s Labor Party is headed for a landslide victory in England. Some polls have given Labor more than 400 of the 650 seats in the House of Commons. This will bring to an end the 14-year rule of the Conservative Party, known as the Tory Party, currently led by Prime Minister Rishi Sunak.

The UK has been mired in an economic crisis since voting to leave the European Union in 2016. At present, the biggest concern of the voters is their deteriorating quality of life.
Real wages have continued to decline, and food prices are 20% above levels seen in July 2021, although the inflation rate eased to 2% in May after rising to 11.1% in October 2022.
Household disposable income will fall by 0.9% between 2019 and the end of 2024, according to a report by think tank Resolution.

Public spending has seen constant cuts during the Tories’ 14 years in power. The famous National Health Service (NHS) is crumbling due to extremely long waiting times and dwindling numbers of general practitioners; Pensions fail to keep up with inflation; And public housing is literally crumbling.

Confusion in the party

There is also political uncertainty following Brexit. Conservative Prime Minister David Cameron lost his job after opposing Brexit. Four Conservative prime ministers have followed, none of whom lasted more than 38 months in power.

* Liz Truss, Sunak’s predecessor at 10 Downing Street, the British Prime Minister’s official residence, resigned on October 20, 2022, after 49 days in office and a disastrous mini-budget. The Budget came at a time when prices and energy costs were rising, and the UK was seen entering recession. Trudeau’s unrealistic ‘growth plan’, funded by a series of tax cuts, has baffled economists and terrified his party.

* Before Truss, Boris Johnson left office in a blizzard of scandals including the infamous ‘Particate’. In that he and other Conservative Party members were caught in the party at the height of the Covid-19 pandemic, while Britain at large was under tighter restrictions. Meetings. The party was seen as the last straw in Johnson’s three years at No 10, during which he faced allegations of cronyism and corruption.

* Johnson succeeded Theresa May on July 24, 2019 after Britain’s second female prime minister failed to finalize a workable plan for Brexit. The pro-Brexit May came to power after Cameron in 2016, pledging to forge a beneficial Brexit deal with the EU.

* Current Prime Minister Sunak has failed to right the sinking Tory ship. Making illegal immigration his pet issue, he tried in vain to shift the narrative away from conservative corruption and economic mismanagement.

His policy of sending undocumented migrants to Rwanda was considered inhumane by many Britons and gave the opposition Labor party plenty of ammunition to attack him. Sunak’s breach of UK climate promises was also exploited by Labor.

In May, Sunak called for early elections after some progress on the economic front. But the Tory campaign failed to impress. A large number of Conservative MPs have decided not to contest, and many have switched parties.

Labor Program for ‘Transformation’

Ahead of the election, Labor leader Starmer has promised to be the agent of change Britain needs. He has said that the first task of his government will be to boost economic growth.

According to Labour’s manifesto, the party will establish a $9.2 billion National Wealth Fund, which aims to attract three pounds of private investment for every pound of public money to support growth and clean energy.

Labor has vowed not to raise taxes on “working people”. There will be no increase in basic, higher or additional rates of income tax, national insurance or VAT. Corporation tax will remain at the current level of 25%.

Starmer has said he will tackle problems with the NHS by adding 40,000 appointments each week, encouraging staff to make more out-of-hours appointments and using “spare capacity” in the private sector. He has promised to hire an additional 8,500 new staff to treat children and adults.

While Starmer has been fiercely critical of Sunak’s immigration policy, he has also promised to reduce net migration by introducing visa restrictions, training workers in sectors with domestic shortages and increasing border security. Labor has vowed to abandon Sunak’s Rwanda policy.

It plans to set up state-owned Great British Energy, backed by $10.5 billion, to “partner with energy companies, local authorities and co-operatives to install thousands of clean power projects, including offshore wind, solar and hydropower projects”. By 2030, double offshore wind, triple solar and offshore Starmer has said he will expand clean energy by quadrupling wind.

Selling the labor soul

Despite Starmer’s lofty claims, critics have said he has “sold Labour’s soul” in a bid to make the party more electable. Starmer is a man without an ideology who, they say, will do “anything” to make Labor more electable.

Under Starmer, the party has abandoned its left-wing, working-class traditions and moved to the center of the political spectrum.

Starmer replaced left-wing Jeremy Corbyn in 2020. His campaign for the Labor leadership released a set of “10 pledges” including reviewing arms sales, taxing the rich and bringing utilities under state ownership. Since becoming party leader, Starmer has abandoned most of these promises. He has faced massive backlash for his pro-Israel stance amid the ongoing conflict in Gaza.

Starmer’s actions have alienated the left wing of the Labor Party. Former Labor leaders such as Corbyn are standing as independents. The left’s place is now occupied by Tory turncoats such as Brexit-supporting Natalie Elphicke.

Many have compared Starmer to former Labor Prime Minister Tony Blair, who brought Labor to power in 1997 after 18 years of Tory rule. Blair also made the party “more practical”. But unlike Blair, who enjoyed record public ratings at his peak, public opinion of Starmer is, and remains, lukewarm.